A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
